Electric Cars are Coming

Lately my car (the Beast) costs more than $100 to fill and a tank usually lasts only 10 days to a few weeks.

While it remains the God of all cars (in my humble opinion) and continues to thrill me each time I drive it, thankfully I don’t have to commute in it… or it would for sure be a Sunday driver by now.

Some of my friends who drive SUV’s and other vehicles with large V8 engines are spending over $1,000 a month on gas.

It’s killer.

And nevermind if you own a boat. Another friend who owns a Mastercraft X-Star drops $300 per fill. Not that he can’t afford it, but that hit takes a little fun out of the boating experience, I’m sure.

Here in Kelowna, more boats are for sale than I can remember in a long time.

Anyway, something that I’ve been thinking about for a while is this concept of plug-in cars. I think they are the way of the future for a number of reasons that I’ve wanted to write about for some time.

In February I was in Los Angeles, California visiting my Spicy Chocolate sponsor, Styledose. While there, I read many things about a new legislation the Governator passed where the six biggest car makers have to sell 58,000 plug-in hybrids by 2014.

Whoa.

I also read about things like what Washington Congressman Jay Inslee had helped push through the Senate in the way of tax credits for buying plug-in hybrids. Very cool indeed.

Way to go Jay!

Add to this a huge environmental push by almost everybody to get rid of carbon-producing public enemy #1 - the internal combustion gasoline engine - and you’ve got the seeds planted for a serious and game changing course of action in the auto industry.

The biggest laugh I had about trying to clean up the image of the gasoline industry’s image was a BP gas station in LA that tried to do everything to reduce its carbon footprint. I laughed because this station isn’t carrying any alternative fuel sources….a bit like putting lipstick on a pig, don’t you think?

Here’s a photo I took of the “helios” green gas station while driving by at night (when it looks much more dramatic):

Some of the “features” this BP pilot project is show-casing: All recycled plastics where ever possible. Reclaimed concrete I was told. The roof top is a combination of solar panels and green grassses. Mostly grasses. The water for the plants on the property is mostly reclaimed from the rainfall that lands on the lot. The idea behind the grasses on the roof top is to reduce the heat signature or “heat island effect” of the building within the urban area - something that architects have been talking about for years.

Low energy LED’s where ever possible.

When you fill up, you get a package of seeds to plant in your garden in a package made of recycled paper. Actually the seeds are mixed right in with the paper, so you just bury the whole thing in the dirt then degradation and mother nature work together - all for the common good of reducing carbon footprint.

Anyway, the GREEN gas station (is that a juxtaposition and oxymoron or what!?) looks very cool and is a valiant attempt to clean up Big Oil’s image. As an architecture buff, I can say it’s a very cool looking facility. Frank Gehry would love it I’m sure. (Click here to see the full size shot during the day)

At this this year’s Detroit auto show, industry heavies GM and Toyota confirmed plans to put plug-in hybrids on the road by 2010. That’s less than two years.

One vehicle which is getting a lot of press and interest is the Chevy Volt. It’s scheduled to be launched by 2009. Click here to visit the Chevy Volt website.

These vehicles would rely upon batteries are their PRIMARY source of power, not gasoline. The difference between this and today’s hybrids, is that today’s hybrids switch over to gas power at high speeds.

Is this the end of big oil?

It’s possible. These things could turn the tables on Big Oil. The scary thing is that it could fuel up another monster: Big Utility. Plug-in cars could make the utilities more important than the oil companies.

(Thank God we got rid of Enron in the 90’s!)

The idea behind plug in cars is that they’re designed to be recharged overnight…and this is where my belief that the plug-ins could change the source of fuel in the world of automotive energy.

Typically, electrical utility providers see a significant dip in demand at night time when we go to bed and turn OFF most or all of our lights. As a result, the utilities have a large surplus of capacity at night because the utilities do not decrease energy production while we’re sleeping - they keep it very close to stable. You can’t do anything with that capacity, except store it in a battery.

I think this could dramatically boost sales for utilities, hence my theory of “Big Utility”.

What’s more important however, and this is big, is the fact that the infrastructure and awareness is already there with electricity. People understand those plugs in their walls. Americans and most developed countries all have them. They understand electricity. Even more important is the fact that most electrical energy generation is already very clean and efficient.

In B.C. (and most of Canada actually), we produce some of the cleanest electricity in the world - with hydro generation sources. California is very similar. Here’s a pie chart showing how much of Cali’s electrical energy is produced by clean sources (click to see a full size view):

Nuclear power is very clean and safe. In fact 15% of the world’s electricity (France is about 80%) is already produced by nuclear energy. Forget about Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. That technology isn’t being deployed in today’s nuclear power plants. The amount of waste that nuclear energy produces from uranium is considered minuscule by most standards.

Electrical power a known entity. Hydrogen is not. It’s unstable at less than sub-arctic temperatures and makes for a pretty impressive explosion if you mess up with it. Remember the H-Bomb?

The concept of plugging in your car at night is well within the reach and mind share of everyone. For instance, us people up North do this every night anyway to keep their engine blocks from freezing - so habitually most of us Canadian are already into the swing of things!

In addition, electrical energy is an option that can be cost effectively met by the existing network because of the supply/ demand scenario I’ve outlined above. Further, electric motors are proven technology.

This is something I knew when I was 6 years old:

I can remember fixing and rewiring the copper coils of my electric trains and race car sets as a kid. Some times I would over-wire the motors for faster performance and always beat my dad. (I don’t think he knew about this until he read this blog post - sorry Dad - that why I always beat you!)

Fast forward to modern times and the over wiring idea exists in production with one of my favorite electric cars: The Tesla Roadster. If you haven’t read about this car - you need to. It’s soon to be within reach of most consumers and the dealership support network is growing.

I would like to own one.

Rumor has it they are working on a 4 door version. That would be a great replacement for the Beast and I would for sure buy a sedan. Here’s why: 0-60 in 3.9 seconds (same as the Beast), 100% electric, 220 miles per charge at less than 2 cents per mile! (definately NOT the same as the Beast).

In the meantime, I did read about a 4 door plug-in from a different manufacturer, last month in one of my favorite magazines - the Robb Report.

The car I’m referring to, IS a serious contender for replacing the Beast.

It’s made by another electric American car company called Fisker Automotive. And damn is the 4-door ever hot! It’s insanely hot. It looks so good… from any angle. This car is one of the sharpest 4-doors I’ve ever seen. Even hotter than the new Maserati Quattroporte.

The model I’m referring to is called the Karma. Compared with Tesla, this car is a HYBRID gas-electric. It has a small gas engine which charges lithium batteries. If you charge the car every night, they claim with these combination of technologies you’ll should have to put gasoline in the car once PER YEAR.

Hello? Yes, you read that right.

Once per year.

What’s even cooler is the option to install a solar panel rooftop that will charge the car when it’s parked. Granted, this won’t help much when it’s parked in my garage, but when having lunch at the Newsroom, it’ll be nice to know that my Karma is soaking up the Socal sunshine to get me back to the beach.

Which brings me back to the whole point I wanted to write this article. The energy density of electrical power for automobiles has reached the point with battery technology that we’re now at parity in terms of performance. In addition, the cost base of electrical power per kilowatt produces better mileage than the best hydrogen/ gas combo on the road today. And forget about ANY gasoline - horsepower calculations (or diesel for that matter - despite Mercedes Benz AWESOME work on the BlueTec engine) coming even close.

What makes things worse for oil is that despite rumours there may by lots left in the world, it’s still a gamble to find it, much less get it out of the ground.

However, great technology like oil shale extraction by Petro Probe may eventually and dramatically help the cause…even though hydro carbon isn’t the most earth friendly energy source.

Either way, oil is dead for cars. You can see it coming… Just not yet.

The big car makers and oil companies are like a cartel when it comes to having a lock on the marketplace…. who need to be broken up my market demand. It’s the only way.

GM and Toyota are leading the way and that is cool. Just don’t expect them (or any big automaker) to finish the race.

Besides the fact that thinking in these companies is so old, the next biggest reason it will take so long for the marketplace to re-orient itself around electric cars in my opinion is because of the huge infrastructure and knowledge gap that exists. Think of all those mechanics and after market parts makers who will have to re-tool and re-train.

That’s a big deal. There’s over 100 years of existing infrastructure that’s in place. No other industry is so well entrenched…anywhere.

The Chevy Volt (and the automotive revolution it should start) will hopefully put electric cars (and cool ones) in the hands of the masses.

Could it become the next Chevy Cavalier? The next Volkswagen? I hope so.

What’s better is that the maintenance of electric power plants and drive lines are inherently cheaper to maintain than combustion engines.

We just have to get used to NOT hearing the sounds of big, throaty, sexy engines. We have to start talking in terms of new lingo.

“How many horses?” becomes “How many kilowatts?”

In the meantime, the question of ownership gets tricky because a day is coming were the gas powered engines will no longer become marketable - new or used.

We’re already seeing this slump with SUV sales in the U.S.

When does your gas powered car start to sharply decline in value in contrast to the rise in popularity of electric cars? It’s a sunset situation. I don’t know when, but it’s coming. It’s going to be like when LCD monitors took over CRT tube monitors.

I worry for the land fills.

What would be great is if someone could come up with a business to retrofit existing cars with a generic powerplant that it electric. Now THAT’s a great business idea for someone to run with.

In the meantime, I’m going to go and enjoy the sounds of my V8 while I can.

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